Before the season started, I was convinced that the NBA Finals would be another classic battle between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Boston Celtics. Back then, those teams seemed to have a size and talent advantage too great to lose. Between the two, I gave the edge to a healthy Celtics team, which seems more like pipe dream than an assumption with every passing day.
I thought the Miami Heat only had a puncher's shot to even get to the Finals. Wade would have to erupt in 2006-like fashion to compensate for the fact that it's a lot easier for the Celtics runescape power leveling who are bigger and more efficient offensively to score on Miami.
Things have changed.
In one of the worst deals in the history of basketball (it makes almost no basketball sense and little financial sense) the Celtics shipped off Kendrick Perkins(notes) and Nate Robinson(notes) for Jeff Green(notes) and Nenad Krstic(notes).
In an effort to give Paul Pierce(notes) and Ray Allen(notes) some respite by acquiring an athletic swingman, they sacrificed two of the most important advantages they over the Heat: size and quickness at the point. Believe it or not, the Miami Heat rs power leveling are so weak at the center position that Kendrick Perkins was a legitimate scoring threat in the post against Miami.
So as the Boston Celtics have struggled recently and the Heat have started collecting wins against elite teams (they are the only team to beat the Lakers in the last 17 games), the Eastern Conference seems more contested than ever. And, if the Heat do reach the NBA Finals, they have proven that they make the Lakers as uncomfortable with their speed and athleticism as they are with the Lakers' length.
Here are the 5 keys to winning an NBA Championship for the Miami Heat:
5. Bench Production
The Miami Heat aren't designed to derive much of their offense from their bench. They have three of the best players in the NBA and two of them dominate the ball the entire game.
A set-up like that isn't conducive to balance.
That said, the Heat need their bench players, particularly Eddie House(notes) and James Jones(notes), to make open shots.
At this point, I've given up on Mike Miller(notes). He's too injured and although his smart rebounding and skilled ball handling are helpful, his inability to make open shots consistently is too much of a burden. To me, it's not just the injuries. I think part of the problem is that Mike Miller was a rhythm shooter who depended on a certain number of shots to be effective. Unlike James Jones and Eddie House who have played few minutes and taken few shots their whole career and been expected to make them, Mike Miller buy runescape accounts always played a prominent role in offenses and the adjustment compounded by the injuries is too much of a risk for the playoffs.
Knowing Coach Spoelstra's philosophy, Mike Miller will probably play anyway. Spo always goes with the play or the move that has the greatest mathematical expectation, which means House and Jones will probably not see too much time on the floor during the playoffs barring serious injuries. But, if the Heat want to win, they need those open threes to go down.
As far as the bigs are concerned, all Miami needs is for Magloire, Howard and Dampier to be nasty. They need to crush sternums on a nightly-basis with elbows to make up for the fact that they are old and slow. If they can get into the opposing teams' heads with physicality and protect the Big Three, they will have done their jobs.
4. The new Chris Bosh(notes)
Or should I say the old Chris Bosh? For the overwhelming majority of the year, we saw Chris Bosh as a finesse jump-shooter. His boxing out was halfhearted and he rarely posted up or penetrated. He'd just try to create some separation from the true power forwards in the league and shoot the jumper.
That was it.
If you saw the Chicago Bulls game where he missed like 15 of those and went 0-18 you might think that's a bad shot, but he's actually highly efficient jump shooter.
But, he's an even more efficient post player.
Bosh is too fast and creative for anyone not named Kevin Garnett buy runescape money (notes) to handle around the basket. He can finish with both hands, spin and drive like the best guards at almost 7 feet tall.
The facts that Chris Bosh is rolling on picks with LeBron James(notes) and Dwyane Wade(notes), rather than popping like he was before, and his effort on the offensive glass, are two of the main reasons the Heat's half-court offense has improved dramatically. Miami will reap the benefits of his new aggression against Philadelphia and Chicago in the early rounds.
3. High-IQ ball
Another important factor in the Miami Heat's improved half-court game, however, is that Dwyane Wade and LeBron James (especially LeBron) have stopped taking so many threes and other contested jump shots. It's the worst part of both their games. And for a while, LeBron was suffering from a debilitating case of Kobe Syndrome or Mamba-itis.
I don't mind either of them taking a heat check every now and then after an emotional play. Both of them have the ability to score 20 in a row by just shooting, so seeing if it's there is fine. What's not fine is looking at the shot chart every night and seeing an upside-down Christmas tree that's all red on the top and green on the bottom.
The cost of all that chucking is too high I commend both of them, especially LeBron for cutting back. I've also seen less turnovers and risky basketball, which should be helpful against smart teams that take care of the ball like the Lakers and Celtics.
2. Dwyane Wade
We know what we're getting from LeBron James every night. The reason he's the best basketball player on earth is that he can produce 25-10-10 and 50 from the field, effortlessly.
But as Chris Webber has said in the past, and I agree, Dwyane Wade buy runescape gold is a close second. And, for stretches, he has been as good as anyone to ever play the game. (Check out the 2006 playoff statistics and 2009 regular season numbers for some evidence.)
I firmly believe that winning this year depends almost entirely on Dwyane Wade and the reason is that there is almost no ceiling on what Wade can do. Although his production fluctuates more drastically than the other two players' from Miami's Big Three, he has the ability to impact the game like Michael Jordan at times.
At 6'3'', he can score 40, grab 10 rebounds, dish 5 assists, collect 4 steals and block 3 shots.
All in the same game.
If he elevates his game to that level, like he has in the past for entire regular seasons and playoff series, the Miami Heat are unstoppable. Forget the bench, forget their problems at point and center, forget every weakness imaginable.
Given how consistent LeBron James and Chris Bosh are, if Dwyane Wade can channel his inner MJ, the Heat win.
That simple.
1. Defense
Now, I know that's a big IF. And, the fact that I've listed defense at number one should indicate how comfortable I am hanging my hat on it. Wade has done in it spurts this season, including a couple of times when he's been given the ball at the end of close games, but the reason the Big Three came together in Miami is to avoid those types of lofty individual expectations exactly.
You might not remember this, but for the first half of the season the Miami Heat were the best defensive team in the NBA. They were first in points allowed and first in defensive rating.
The Heat are now seventh in points allowed and rated fifth at defense.
Part of the reason they were so good is that Coach Spoelstra and Pat Riley espouse defense above all else, but another was that they struggled so mightily with their half-court offense that a lot of their scoring depended on forcing turnovers and bad shots and turning them into transition baskets.
Have you noticed the Heat aren't running that much recently?
Mike Bibby(notes) is responsible for part of the problem defensively, but the major problem is effort. If we can't muster up the energy to get back on defense every time; if Dwyane Wade continues to argue calls on the other end rather than get back and play some D, the Miami Heat can't advance into the deepest rounds of the playoffs.
The Heat's recent excellence in the half-court shouldn't replace its defensive intensity and reliance on transition basketball. It shouldn't completely alter the team's identity. It's simply too easy for the Heat to score on the break with the LBJ and Flash running the floor and coupled with an improved half-court game, suffocating defense should be doubly as frustrating for opponents.
The bottom line
I am aware that I've listed lot of contingencies and that's exactly what separates the Heat from the Lakers. LA doesn't need a long list of ifs for the Lakers to make the finals. But, with the questionable moves the Celtics have made and their own plague of ifs concerning Shaq, Jermaine and Rondo, the door is more open than ever for the Miami Heat to execute and hold up the Larry O'Brien trophy in 2011.
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